A closely-watched advance gauge of consumer confidence in Germany is expected to hit a multi-year low in November, as increasing numbers of survey participants’ polled by research company GfK said that their expectations of economic growth and income had fallen.
GfK is predicting a consumer climate value of 9.6 points for November, 0.2 points lower than the revised value of 9.8 for October, and the lowest level registered by GfK since November 2016.
Rolf Buerkl, a consumer expert at GfK, said that besides known risk factors such as the global economic downturn, trade conflicts and Brexit chaos, there were increasing reports of job losses in the automotive industry and in the financial markets.
While the German economic outlook recovered slightly in the previous month, it continued its downward trend in October; GfK’s sub-indicator assessing economic expectations lost 4.8 points, falling to -13.8 points as a result. The last time a lower value was recorded was almost seven years ago in December 2012 when it stood at -14.0 points.
Meanwhile, GfK’s income expectation indicator lost 7.8 points in October, falling to 39.0 points, the lowest value in almost six years.
Consumers’ view of the risk that Germany could slide into a recession also increased, the report went on to say. “Combined with the trade conflict, the global cooling off of the economy, which will especially impact the strongly export-oriented German economy, will not leave the German economy unscathed,” the report stated.
GfK’s survey was conducted from October 2 to 14 and the results were extracted from the “GfK Consumer Climate MAXX” study, which is based on approximately 2,000 consumer interviews per month conducted on behalf of the European Commission.
This post was originally published on Health Opinion